The 57% Illusion: Why Polymarket's IRGC Probability Is a Crypto Risk You Shouldn't Hedge
Hook: A single data point flashed across Polymarket this week: a 57%...
Blockchain
•
CryptoRay
•
2026-07-20
#POLY
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Market Prices
BTC
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$75,569.7
-4.11%
ETH
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$2,396.97
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SOL
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BNB
BNB Chain
$712
-1.59%
XRP
XRP Ledger
$1.28
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DOGE
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$0.0799
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ADA
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$0.1951
-7.58%
AVAX
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$7.25
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$0.9448
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LINK
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$10.93
-6.35%
Fear & Greed
69
Greed
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Event Calendar
202622
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
15
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
18
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
28
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
10
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
08
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
Topic Tags
Tools
All →Altseason Index
42
Bitcoin Season
BTC Dominance
Altseason
Gas Tracker
Ethereum
28 Gwei
BNB Chain
3 Gwei
Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
Market Cap
All →
1
Bitcoin
BTC
$75,569.7
1
Ethereum
ETH
$2,396.97
1
Solana
SOL
$96.81
1
BNB Chain
BNB
$712
1
XRP Ledger
XRP
$1.28
1
Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.0799
1
Cardano
ADA
$0.1951
1
Avalanche
AVAX
$7.25
1
Polkadot
DOT
$0.9448
1
Chainlink
LINK
$10.93
🐋 Whale Tracker
🔴
0x381e...ba79
1d ago
Out
2,080,271 USDT
🔴
0x3bb0...c673
1d ago
Out
21,336 SOL
🔵
0xe8fb...2d31
1h ago
Stake
5,955,668 DOGE
💡 Smart Money
0xd683...7abb
Institutional Custody
+$0.9M
60%
0xfba1...6265
Experienced On-chain Trader
+$4.1M
79%
0x3ec1...4087
Experienced On-chain Trader
+$4.3M
75%