The 57% Illusion: Why Polymarket's IRGC Probability Is a Crypto Risk You Shouldn't Hedge
Hook: A single data point flashed across Polymarket this week: a 57%...
Blockchain
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CryptoRay
•
2026-07-20
#POLY
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Fear & Greed
27
Fear
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Event Calendar
202615
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
28
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
18
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
22
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
10
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
08
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
Topic Tags
Tools
All →Altseason Index
44
Bitcoin Season
BTC Dominance
Altseason
Gas Tracker
Ethereum
28 Gwei
BNB Chain
3 Gwei
Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
Market Cap
All →
1
Bitcoin
BTC
$62,594.1
1
Ethereum
ETH
$1,836.25
1
Solana
SOL
$71.45
1
BNB Chain
BNB
$575.4
1
XRP Ledger
XRP
$1.05
1
Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.0685
1
Cardano
ADA
$0.1730
1
Avalanche
AVAX
$6.13
1
Polkadot
DOT
$0.7707
1
Chainlink
LINK
$8.01
🐋 Whale Tracker
🔵
0xcc80...1596
1d ago
Stake
1,885 ETH
🟢
0xf0f7...2802
1h ago
In
8,015 BNB
🔴
0xa165...9d46
3h ago
Out
1,619,882 USDT
💡 Smart Money
0xa628...738c
Early Investor
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85%
0x77f1...f784
Institutional Custody
+$2.4M
85%
0xea0c...37ea
Experienced On-chain Trader
+$2.8M
84%