The 57% Illusion: Why Polymarket's IRGC Probability Is a Crypto Risk You Shouldn't Hedge
Hook: A single data point flashed across Polymarket this week: a 57%...
Blockchain
•
CryptoRay
•
2026-07-20
#pol
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Market Prices
BTC
Bitcoin
$62,842.6
-0.28%
ETH
Ethereum
$1,845.01
-0.92%
SOL
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$71.8
-1.67%
BNB
BNB Chain
$575.8
-2.11%
XRP
XRP Ledger
$1.06
-0.46%
DOGE
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$0.0692
-0.69%
ADA
Cardano
$0.1743
+3.69%
AVAX
Avalanche
$6.18
-3.62%
DOT
Polkadot
$0.7770
+1.77%
LINK
Chainlink
$8.06
-1.23%
Fear & Greed
27
Fear
Market Sentiment
7x24h Flash News
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Event Calendar
202615
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
18
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
08
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
28
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
10
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
22
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
Topic Tags
Tools
All →Altseason Index
44
Bitcoin Season
BTC Dominance
Altseason
Gas Tracker
Ethereum
28 Gwei
BNB Chain
3 Gwei
Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
Market Cap
All →
1
Bitcoin
BTC
$62,842.6
1
Ethereum
ETH
$1,845.01
1
Solana
SOL
$71.8
1
BNB Chain
BNB
$575.8
1
XRP Ledger
XRP
$1.06
1
Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.0692
1
Cardano
ADA
$0.1743
1
Avalanche
AVAX
$6.18
1
Polkadot
DOT
$0.7770
1
Chainlink
LINK
$8.06
🐋 Whale Tracker
🟢
0xca64...2941
1d ago
In
5,304,882 DOGE
🟢
0xbc15...77c1
30m ago
In
1,888,740 DOGE
🔴
0x81ec...acce
12m ago
Out
11,660 SOL
💡 Smart Money
0x0430...27dd
Experienced On-chain Trader
+$0.5M
78%
0x57cd...457d
Market Maker
-$4.7M
94%
0x1723...3627
Early Investor
+$3.0M
85%