The 57% Illusion: Why Polymarket's IRGC Probability Is a Crypto Risk You Shouldn't Hedge
Hook: A single data point flashed across Polymarket this week: a 57%...
Blockchain
•
CryptoRay
•
2026-07-20
#poly
poly related articles
Market Prices
BTC
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ETH
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SOL
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BNB Chain
$575.8
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XRP Ledger
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+3.69%
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$0.7770
+1.77%
LINK
Chainlink
$8.06
-1.23%
Fear & Greed
27
Fear
Market Sentiment
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Event Calendar
202628
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
15
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
18
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
08
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
22
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
10
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
Topic Tags
Tools
All →Altseason Index
44
Bitcoin Season
BTC Dominance
Altseason
Gas Tracker
Ethereum
28 Gwei
BNB Chain
3 Gwei
Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
Market Cap
All →
1
Bitcoin
BTC
$62,842.6
1
Ethereum
ETH
$1,845.01
1
Solana
SOL
$71.8
1
BNB Chain
BNB
$575.8
1
XRP Ledger
XRP
$1.06
1
Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.0692
1
Cardano
ADA
$0.1743
1
Avalanche
AVAX
$6.18
1
Polkadot
DOT
$0.7770
1
Chainlink
LINK
$8.06
🐋 Whale Tracker
🟢
0x21c8...9188
1h ago
In
4,976.85 BTC
🔵
0xe876...a0fb
6h ago
Stake
2,304 ETH
🟢
0xdf1e...2537
1h ago
In
1,266,380 USDC
💡 Smart Money
0x1ffc...270b
Top DeFi Miner
+$3.5M
88%
0xf72d...455c
Market Maker
+$0.2M
87%
0xb304...976c
Institutional Custody
+$0.2M
90%