The 57% Illusion: Why Polymarket's IRGC Probability Is a Crypto Risk You Shouldn't Hedge
Hook: A single data point flashed across Polymarket this week: a 57%...
Blockchain
•
CryptoRay
•
2026-07-20
#probability
probability related articles
Market Prices
BTC
Bitcoin
$75,630.8
-2.99%
ETH
Ethereum
$2,396.75
-4.64%
SOL
Solana
$96.81
-5.42%
BNB
BNB Chain
$711.9
-1.11%
XRP
XRP Ledger
$1.28
-9.84%
DOGE
Dogecoin
$0.0799
-4.68%
ADA
Cardano
$0.1937
-6.87%
AVAX
Avalanche
$7.23
-4.17%
DOT
Polkadot
$0.9425
-5.02%
LINK
Chainlink
$10.86
-6.15%
Fear & Greed
51
Neutral
Market Sentiment
7x24h Flash News
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Event Calendar
202628
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
22
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
10
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
18
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
08
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
15
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
Topic Tags
Tools
All →Altseason Index
41
Bitcoin Season
BTC Dominance
Altseason
Gas Tracker
Ethereum
28 Gwei
BNB Chain
3 Gwei
Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
Market Cap
All →
1
Bitcoin
BTC
$75,630.8
1
Ethereum
ETH
$2,396.75
1
Solana
SOL
$96.81
1
BNB Chain
BNB
$711.9
1
XRP Ledger
XRP
$1.28
1
Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.0799
1
Cardano
ADA
$0.1937
1
Avalanche
AVAX
$7.23
1
Polkadot
DOT
$0.9425
1
Chainlink
LINK
$10.86
🐋 Whale Tracker
🟢
0x92a6...3a14
1d ago
In
147,749 USDT
🔴
0x8aed...da70
2m ago
Out
4,166 ETH
🔴
0xd85e...31a5
30m ago
Out
2,461,255 USDT
💡 Smart Money
0xb475...a306
Top DeFi Miner
+$3.6M
69%
0xb649...fe16
Arbitrage Bot
+$0.3M
87%
0xfbde...e77e
Top DeFi Miner
+$4.6M
88%